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Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis: Bullish Channel Forming

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Ethereum has formed higher lows and higher highs since breaking above the longer-term falling wedge consolidation. Price is gearing up for another test of the ascending channel support on its 1-hour time frame.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse. The moving averages are also close to the channel support around $475 to add to its strength as a floor.

However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to signal weakening bullish momentum. If a crossover materializes, selling pressure could return and lead to a reversal from the climb.

RSI is also on the move down to confirm that bears have the upper hand, but the oscillator is approaching oversold levels to hint at exhaustion among sellers. Stochastic is already dipping into oversold territory to signal that bullish momentum could return soon.

A pickup in buying pressure could lead to a move back up to the channel top at $550 or at least until the mid-channel area of interest at $500-510. A break below channel support, on the other hand, could mean a move to the next horizontal support around $450.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Channel Within a Channel

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Bitcoin continues to climb inside an ascending channel on its 4-hour time frame and is forming a new rising channel at the upper half. Price keeps bouncing off the mid-channel area of interest and might be due to test this support area again soon.

However, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame to suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, bearish momentum could win out and lead to a larger dip to the bottom of the larger channel around $6,500.

Then again, price is trading above both moving averages to signal that bulls are putting up a fight. A dip to the short-term channel bottom could also find support near the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point while the 100 SMA dynamic support lines up with the larger channel bottom. The gap between the moving averages is also narrowing to signal weakening bearish pressure.

RSI looks ready to turn lower from overbought levels to indicate a possible return in bearish momentum while stochastic seems to have a bit more room to climb. Heading back down could draw bitcoin price along with it, but it seems that buyers are holding their ground until the $6,600 support.

Cryptocurrencies were able to pull off a positive week to jumpstart the quarter and new month, which could keep investors optimistic in the days ahead. For many, the recent rallies are more than just profit-taking from earlier declines and not merely a dead-cat bounce.

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IBM Secures $1 Billion Australian Dollar Blockchain Deal

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The Australian government has chosen IBM as its central technology partner for the next five years in a deal worth $740 million dollars. The agreement will cover technology services provided to government departments, including services which will use IBM’s automation and blockchain technologies. Technology’s Youth Key to the Project

IBM will provide services to federal government departments including defense and home affairs, as well as create platforms to protect citizens’ data. The Australian government estimates the partnership will provide around $100 million AUD worth of savings to its citizens.

Harriet Green, IBM’s Asia Pacific Head, told Bloomberg the “youth of the technology,” alongside the employment of Australians, would be the hallmarks of the new partnership.

Reprieve for IBM After Past Failure

The new agreement is significant for IBM after the century-old U.S multinational was criticized over the failed provision of an Australian national census in 2016. Within minutes of its launch, the digitized survey — which was compulsory for Australians — was hit with four major Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks. The resulting 40-hour outage led to IBM recompensing Australia to the tune of $30 million dollars AUD.

Some experts have criticized the new agreement after the census project failure, including information and communications advisor Dr Wissam Raffoul, who told the Australian Financial Review:

If you engineer a bad experience like the census, why do you expect IBM can do a better service.

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IBM to Develop Blockchain and Tech Initiatives for the Australian Government

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The IBM company has won a landmark contract offered by the Australian government to develop blockchain and other digital initiatives for the country. The announcement was made on Thursday, June 5th, and indicated that the deal was a five year contract that was worth AUD $1 Billion or approximately $740 million. This contract is part of the Australian government’s efforts to have the country become one of the top 3 digital governments in the globe by 2025 through investing in the research and development of blockchain technology, quantum computing as well as artificial intelligence.

David La Rose, the Managing Director of IBM Australia & New Zealand, expressed the willingness of both the government and IBM to transform the future with respect to technology. He was quoted as saying that:

This agreement is a testament to our forty-year partnership with the Australian Government. It shows trust and belief in our ability to transform and provide world-leading capabilities, leveraging our investments locally in AI, blockchain, quantum and cloud. We look forward to helping the Australian Government to re-define the digital experience for the benefit of all Australians.

The exact details of the contract and partnership were not disclosed but IBM already has agreements in place with four federal agencies in the country. This new contract, spearheaded by the Digital Transformation Agency (DTA), will allow the partnership to expand to the remainder of the government.

One of IBM’s notable partners in the blockchain industry, is Stellar (XLM). IBM is already currently using 9 Stellar nodes as part of its backbone to settle cross border payments across the globe.

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Is Bitcoin (BTC) Down Because of Summer Vacations and the FIFA World Cup in Russia?

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During one of the conversations in the numerous cryptocurrency chat groups on Telegram, a keen observer of trends pointed out that Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto-markets are relatively week during the Summer months of the Northern hemisphere. According to National Geographic, summer in the Northern Hemisphere occurs every year from 1st June to August 31st.

He continued to point out that many Americans and Europeans are probably travelling and some are even in Russia to witness history at the World Cup that started on the June 14th to July 15th. The FIFA World Cup is held in the summer months once every four years. The previous tournament in Brazil (2014) was estimated to have welcomed over 6 million tourists in that year alone. The country of Russia has estimated close to 2 Million visitors during the tournament alone (14th June to 15th July).

It is with these two events – Summer, 2018 and the FIFA World Cup – that it is possible to have a theory that the lack of volume in the cryptocurrency markets, is due to individuals around the world enjoying the accompanying activities related to these two events. This means a lot of spending through travelling, eating out and generally having a good time. There were plenty of savvy crypto traders who made massive gains in the last bull run of 2017. They could be enjoying their profits at a beach somewhere before deciding to return to trading in September.

Looking at last year’s price chart for Bitcoin during the summer months, yields a similar observation of a stagnant Bitcoin price up until mid August. What then proceeded during that time period, was the amazing bull run we had in November, December and to some extent, January 2018.

BTC chart showing little activity in May, June and July. Activity started in mid August. Source, coinmarketcap.com

In conclusion, the summer spending habits of individuals in the Northern Hemisphere during this time period could be a factor as to why the current price of Bitcoin has stagnated from late May. BTC ended that month at a value of $7,140 which is not too far off from current levels of $6,587. Perhaps when the summer and the FIFA world cup are over, we will see more funds buying into the crypto markets and a possible bull run into the Holiday season.

Original linkOriginal author: John P. Njui
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Tom Lee: ‘We Still Think Bitcoin Can Reach $25,000 by the End of the Year’

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Tom Lee has cut his year-end prediction for Bitcoin by 20 percent — but still thinks the first and foremost cryptocurrency will top $20,000 per coin in 2018. ‘Or Something Like That’

Tom Lee had previously held strong on his prediction that Bitcoin 00 would reach a new all-time high of $25,000 by the end of 2018. Now, the only Wall Street strategist to make concrete Bitcoin predictions is scaling back his expectations — but only slightly.

The co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisor told CNBC’s “Squawk Box”:

Bitcoin has historically traded at 2.5 times its mining costs. It’s not out of the question that it could be over $20,000 by the end of the year at fair value.

However, Lee later explained on the network’s “Fast Money” that he “may have misspoke a little bit.” He told:

What I was trying to illustrate was that given where mining costs will be and applying the historical average of 2.5 times mining costs, that would imply fair value over $20,000, roughly $22,000. We still think bitcoin can reach $25,000 by the end of the year or something like that.

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Cardano Price Analysis: ADA/USD Turned Bearish

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Key HighlightsADA price failed to stay above the $0.1500 support and declined sharply against the US Dollar (tethered). There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 0.1500 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair (data feed via Bittrex). The pair is now trading in a bearish zone below the $0.1500 and $0.1450 pivot levels.

Cardano price failed to gain momentum and declined against the US Dollar and Bitcoin. ADA/USD may perhaps continue to move down towards the $0.1300 level.

Cardano Price Analysis

There were a couple of attempts by ADA price to move above the $0.1600 resistance against the US Dollar. The ADA/USD pair failed to gain momentum and declined below $0.1550. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $0.1132 low to $0.1607 high. It opened the doors for more losses below the $0.1500 support.

More importantly, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $0.1500 on the hourly chart of the ADA/USD pair. The pair is now trading well below the $0.1450 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. An immediate support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $0.1132 low to $0.1607 high at $0.1370. Below this, there is a risk of more losses towards the $0.1300 support level. Any further declines may perhaps put a lot of pressure on ADA and its price could decline towards $0.1250.

The chart indicates that the price settled below a major support at $0.1450. If there is an upside move, the broken support at $0.1450 might act as a resistance. Moreover, the $0.1500 level and the 100 hourly SMA are also important hurdles for buyers.

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ADA/USD is now placed heavily in the bearish zone.

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Tron (TRX) Price Analysis: Another Selloff Signal After Area of Interest Test

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Tron found resistance at the area of interest or former support around 0.042, signaling that the selloff could resume from here. In addition, a small head and shoulders pattern formed to confirm that a downtrend is in the cards.

Price broke below the neckline support to confirm that selling pressure is picking up, but the 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that there’s still a strong chance for the climb to resume.

RSI is moving lower but is dipping into oversold territory to indicate that bearish momentum is slowing. Similarly stochastic is in the oversold region, which suggests that buyers might take over as soon as the oscillator moves back up.

Unlike most of its cryptocurrency peers, Tron has had a rough week and has been unable to sustain its rally. The altcoin just completed its mainnet launch and it looks like investors are simply booking profits off the anticipation on the lack of further fanfare.

Besides, the dollar is regaining footing on hawkish FOMC expectations since the minutes of the June meeting revealed that policymakers were in agreement on maintaining the gradual pace of tightening. Although trade tensions still pose uncertainties, it looks like they are confident about their growth and inflation outlook.

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Litecoin Price Analysis: LTC/USD Broke Key Support

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Litecoin price failed to hold gains above $85.00 and declined against the US Dollar. LTC/USD is now at a risk of more declines towards the $80.00 support.

Key Talking Points

Litecoin price struggled to move higher and declined below the $85.00 support (Data feed of Kraken) against the US Dollar. This week’s important bullish trend line with support at $85.00 was breached on the hourly chart of the LTC/USD pair. The pair is now trading well below the $85.00 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Yesterday, we discussed about a crucial resistance near $89.00-90.00 in litecoin price against the US dollar. The LTC/USD pair struggled to move higher, resulting in a downside break below a key support at $85.00.

Looking at the chart, the price started a fresh downside wave and moved below the $85.00 and $84.00 support levels. There was also a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the $77.88 low to $89.89 high.

More importantly, this week’s important bullish trend line with support at $85.00 was breached on the hourly chart of the LTC/USD pair. It opened the doors for more losses and the price declined below the $82.00 level.

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Ripple Price Analysis: XRP/USD Broke Key Support

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Key HighlightsRipple price failed to hold an important support at $0.4750 and declined against the US dollar. Yesterday’s highlighted important bullish trend line was breached with support at $0.4850 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair is now trading in a bearish zone and it could decline further towards the $0.4500 support.

Ripple price is under selling pressure against the US Dollar and Bitcoin. XRP/USD may perhaps extend the current decline towards the $0.4550 and $0.4500 supports.

Ripple Price Decline

Yesterday, there was a rejection noted around the $0.5050 resistance in Ripple price against the US Dollar. The XRP/USD pair started a downside move and broke the $0.5000 support area. There was a close below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $0.4522 low to $0.5195 high. It opened the doors for more losses and the price settled below the $0.4900 level.

More importantly, yesterday’s highlighted important bullish trend line was breached with support at $0.4850 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The pair broke a crucial support at $0.4750 and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average. It is currently testing the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $0.4522 low to $0.5195 high. If there is a break below $0.4650, the price may perhaps accelerate declines towards the $0.4550 and $0.4500 support levels. An immediate support is at $0.4600, which is a short term buy zone.

Looking at the chart, the price is clearly under pressure below $0.4800 and $0.4750. If it corrects higher, the previous supports at $0.4750 and $0.4800 are likely to act as resistances. Only a close above $0.4850 could push the price back in a positive zone.

Looking at the technical indicators:

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